On February 22, 2022, Russia officially launched its “special military operation:” sending troops through the allied Donbas border-regions and occupied Crimea into Ukraine. The offensive was expected to sweep through the menial defenses the country had at its disposal. Capitulating its capital, Kyiv, in just two days, delivering a swift end to the conflict and a decisive blow to the increasingly-westernizing Ukrainian government. Instead, the initial push morphed into a multi-year slog where the parade-uniform-wearing Russian military’s communications completely collapsed with the advent of coordinated aid packages from democratically-aligned countries.
The military strategists cherry-picked by the Kremlin, such as staunch loyalist, Valery Gerasimov, or the close friend of Putin’s, Sergei Shoigu, are chosen due to their alignment with Putin rather than military merit. The duo have been criticized by many, including Yvgeny Prigozhin, the late founder of the Wagner Group, a Blackwater-esque private military company whose professionally-trained forces have been credited for many of the frontline successes in during the war. While Ukraine has had difficulties of its own regarding upper management over the course of the conflict, they have mainly dealt with corruption rather than poor military performance.
Because of these two factors, Ukraine has managed to largely stabilize the current front along the Dnipro river, a waterway that runs through the country, similarly to America’s own Mississippi river, effectively splitting the Donbas from the western portion of the country. However, with a freshly-mobilizing batch of Russian troops now filling the ranks and their positions steadily encroaching towards the city of Kharkiv, that may leave the Ukrainians to wonder how much longer this tactical advantage will last.
The solution devised by their strategic command was to begin a proper military incursion into the Russian border-province of Kursk. It acts as a key logistical hub for supplying the Kremlin’s fronts to Ukraine’s east and the region had been poorly fortified due to a lack of experienced forces lining their borders. Ukraine was quickly able to overwhelm these defending troops, taking the provincial city of Sudza, and over 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory with them.
While this movement on the battlefield is still developing, many are already optimistic due to its apparent strategic benefits of simultaneously increasing Ukrainian morale and giving Ukraine the bargaining power to negotiate for captured prisoners of war.